What Beijing has offered the Taliban so far is an open hand and a hint of legitimacy. Taliban leaders have pledged to leave Chinese interests alone and not to harbor anti-China extremist groups.

Transcript

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China's propaganda outlets have been making hay out of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Xinhua, the state news agency, said the fall of Kabul marked the collapse of America's international image and credibility. The editor of a state newspaper cited a joke that the Taliban's takeover was smoother than the presidential transition in the U.S. But, digs aside, the swift U.S. pullout and its aftermath are not necessarily a good thing for China, as NPR's China affairs correspondent John Ruwitch explains.

JOHN RUWITCH, BYLINE: America's two-decade presence in Afghanistan has always been a mixed bag for neighboring China.

RAFFAELLO PANTUCCI: On the one hand, you know, they didn't love the fact that there was American military bases literally on their border in - you know, quite big counterterrorism operations and missions fighting on the ground.

RUWITCH: Raffaello Pantucci is with the Royal United Services Institute, a security think tank in the U.K.

PANTUCCI: But on the other hand, you know, they thought, well, at least someone is dealing with the issues there, and we don't have to.

RUWITCH: That's all changed. Zhu Yongbiao is an expert on Afghanistan at China's Lanzhou University.

ZHU YONGBIAO: (Speaking Mandarin).

RUWITCH: America's exit lowers strategic pressure on China, he says. But, he adds...

ZHU: (Speaking Mandarin).

RUWITCH: The negatives outweigh the positives. And the biggest negative from Beijing's perspective is security.

ZHU: (Speaking Mandarin).

RUWITCH: America's exit might fan the flames of Islamic extremism and encourage terrorist groups, he says. And that's bad for everyone, including China. For Beijing, a resurgence of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, or ETIM, is a worry. And it's told the Taliban as much. China blames that group for a string of attacks over the years and has built a sprawling network of internment camps in the Xinjiang region to try to nip extremism in the bud. The Biden administration says the effort amounts to genocide. Sean Roberts, author of the book "The War On The Uyghurs," says ETIM itself probably isn't much of a risk.

SEAN ROBERTS: But other jihadist groups have begun to take sympathies with the Uyghurs and their plight within China. So I think that, actually, the bigger threat to China is non-Uyghur jihadist groups who may have begun to perceive China as an enemy of Islam.

RUWITCH: Beyond security, China's economic hopes for Afghanistan may also be on hold. Haiyun Ma, at Frostburg State University in Maryland, says Chinese strategists have had their eye on Afghanistan as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. It provides a path to Iran and Turkey that avoids the Pacific Ocean, where America and its allies wield power. It also circumvents Central Asia, where Russia retains influence.

HAIYUN MA: But, at this time, I don't really see how China can implement this plan.

RUWITCH: Aside from instability and uncertainty about the future, China just hasn't ever been much of a player in the country, Ma says. State-owned companies have attempted some investments, but Chinese engagement and aid have been limited. Beijing has pledged to help develop the Afghan economy.

MA: But it's really an empty promise. If you really cannot invest really substantially, you really cannot get some kind of influence in Afghanistan. China basically has little, if nothing.

RUWITCH: What Beijing has offered the Taliban so far is a hint of legitimacy. In late July, before the group seized power, some of its leaders were invited to China to meet Foreign Minister Wang Yi. It was a significant gesture on Beijing's part. Again, Sean Roberts.

ROBERTS: The Chinese state is just as happy to work with a democracy as it is with an autocracy, and in this case, perhaps with a theocracy.

RUWITCH: Perhaps, but the Taliban hasn't even announced the formation of a new government yet. And until there's more clarity about Afghanistan's future, China is likely to remain on the sidelines.

John Ruwitch, NPR News.

(SOUNDBITE OF TOCOTRONIC SONG, "DIE UNENDLICHKEIT") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

Tags: China  Taliban  Afghanistan