Analysis: Democrat Shawn Harris overperformed in 14th District runoff as some voters 'sour' on GOP

Republican Clay Fuller has won Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former U.S. House seat in Georgia’s 14th District. Fuller beat Democrat Shawn Harris, but in the traditionally deep red district that Greene won by 29 points two years ago, Fuller, who was endorsed by President Trump  won by just under 12 points. What does this tell us about how voters are feeling and what it could mean for elections in November? GPB’s Peter Biello spoke with Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University.

Peter Biello: So, Democrat Shawn Harris shrunk the margin quite a bit. What do you think we can attribute this to? Is this the overall mood of the country, the strength of his campaigning, a combination of those two things, or maybe something else? 

Andra Gillespie: It is probably a combination of both. The mood is definitely sour on Republicans at this moment. There are many people who are dissatisfied with the Trump administration for various reasons, and it's not unusual in a midterm election season for the incumbent party to lose seats in an election. So even though Republicans hold on to this seat, It's not surprising that Democrats could actually overperform how they typically perform in this district as a barometer or an indicator of that national mood. 

Peter Biello: This is an unusual time to hold an election. How much do you think awareness of this election and turnout in the 14th District mattered in this case? 

Andra Gillespie: I think it does matter, especially for a special election runoff. There was actually a pretty robust voter turnout in this particular race. So, you're looking at upwards of 150,000 people casting ballots in this race. I usually don't expect that. So that suggests that both campaigns did a good job of getting the word out. There was certainly television advertising. There was a lot of news coverage. And I'm sure, though I wasn't witness to this as a nonresident of that district, that there was a lot of active campaigning that was going on in the district. 

Peter Biello: Republican Clay Fuller will finish Marjorie Taylor Greene's term, but he and Shawn Harris are going to run in their parties' primaries next month. They may face each other again in the November election. So in a district where the margin is tightening, would you expect to see Clay Fuller modify his message to maybe widen it again? 

Andra Gillespie: One of the things that's actually been really interesting is that today it seems he's got — he's going to have a primary challenge. And so there's already text messages that are going out trying to make light of the fact that Fuller didn't win by a large enough margin. 

Peter Biello: Meaning a primary might push him back farther towards the right again? 

Andra Gillespie: Possibly, but I think, you know, I think we also just need to look at kind of the logic behind this particular race. So for all intents and purposes, it's not clear, but because they mentioned Colton Moore's name, this seems like this is something that is somehow connected to Colton Moore. 

Peter Biello: Colton Moore, former state senator. 

Andra Gillespie: Former state senator. And you know, or whether or not it's somebody who supports him, we don't know. And Moore is trying to make the case that he would have been a stronger candidate last night. I actually think that that's highly questionable. So it's completely counterfactual, but Moore might make the case that he's more pure MAGA and could have excited more people. But he, with his profile of having been somewhat pugilistic and antagonizing even to Republicans in the General Assembly, might have actually made him more of a turnoff to moderate and independent voters. And we cannot discount the national mood that suggests that Republicans are going to underperform this year. So to say that you need to be more right-wing in order to do better in this particular election contest strikes me more as wishful thinking. So yes, I think that Clay Fuller is still going to have a harder primary contest than Shawn Harris is going to have, [but] I don't necessarily think that that's gonna dim his prospects, nor does that actually fundamentally change what the race will actually look like in a general election contest, which is still a race that is his to lose. 

Peter Biello: Democrats running in the 14th District have always said they're trying to lay the groundwork for future success. That's kind of what Marcus Flowers said in 2022 when he ran against and lost to Marjorie Taylor Greene. So how does Harris, a veteran and a farmer, play in that district? And to what extent can we say that Democrats are effectively doing that, laying the groundwork for smaller and smaller margins? 

Andra Gillespie: Well, I mean, if we look at Flowers' performance and then Harris' performance, you see an incremental improvement of about a percentage point, I believe. And then if we look at this particular improvement, we're looking at about an eight percentage point improvement from the special election. It's an apples to pears comparison, so, y'know, I don't want to put much stock in that. That being said, it does look like Harris is going to be in a really strong position to be able to do better than he did in 2024. Also, Fuller, though he will be technically the incumbent, won't have the same level of incumbency advantage that Marjorie Taylor Greene did when she ran in 2024. So I would not be surprised to see Harris actually do well in the November general election and perhaps hit a ceiling that's somewhere in the low 40s. So maybe not 44%, but we might be looking at something in the ,y'know, 40, 41% — kind of around where the first ballot was for this special election.