Who will win at the 2026 Academy Awards? Here are GPB's picks for an Oscar

Caption

Actor Michael B. Jordan plays twins Smoke (right) and Stack in the 2025 film "Sinners," which was nominated for a record 16 Academy Awards.

Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures

The 98th Academy Awards are March 15. and Atlanta movie expert Stephen Brown joins GPB's Kristi York Wooten to talk Georgia movie connections and to make some predictions about who might take home Oscars this year.

Brown is a longtime movie reviewer and film industry expert and a resident of the southwest-of-Atlanta neighborhood of Trilith, which houses one of the largest studio sound stages in the country. 

See our predictions below. 

TRANSCRIPT

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Kristi York Wooten: Thanks for being back with us to talk about this. I want to jump right in for the Best Picture nominees this year. I think there are 10 films nominated and they run the gamut from adventure to semi-horror and science fiction and all kinds of fun stuff: The Secret Agent, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, Train Dreams. F1, Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sentimental Value. What are your thoughts on some of the top contenders this year? 

Stephen Brown: A lot of great ones there. There might be one or two that are lucky to be on the list, but it's definitely a good list of movies. And I think two have emerged as the absolute nipping-at-their-heels competitors. That is Sinners and One Battle After Another. And you've got auteur directors in both cases, with Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler, who wrote and directed their films. And I think both will be considered watershed moments in cinema. And so it's one of those [years], where it's down to the wire about which one could possibly win. 

Kristi York Wooten:  Let's talk about those two, especially for some folks who may not have seen both of them. So give us a little rundown, without giving too much away, about Sinners. 

Stephen Brown: Sure, so the spoiler-free notion of Sinners is it's set in the Mississippi Delta during the 1930s, and you have two twin brothers played by Michael B. Jordan, Smoke and Stack, that come back to their hometown to have an opening night of a juke joint. And let's just say that not everything goes as planned. And there is definitely some genre-defying moments, a great ensemble cast, a really amazing vision. And there are definitely some themes in it about music and about art making, appropriation and celebration. And it's a pretty amazing movie. It's definitely my favorite and my pick [for Best Picture]. 

The other movie a lot of people will tell you is the best of the year is One Battle After Another. This is the one that stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn and Teyana Taylor, and a bunch of great people in the ensemble. And it is about two people who are part of a radical revolutionary group in some fictional time in the past, who meet up in a fictional time kind of like the present. And it's basically the story of a father and his daughter, played by Chase Infinity, and the father trying to remember what he's supposed to know as a former revolutionary. And it's very interesting and it's been racking up a lot of the precursor prizes, but lately the Actors Awards, formerly called the SAG Awards, had some unexpected momentum for Sinners. And so a lot us who are maybe predicting an upset for Sinners over One Battle, that's been winning a lot the awards. 

Caption

"Sentimenal Value" stars Renate Reinsve (left), who is nominated for Actress in a Leading Role at the 98th Academy Awards. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (right), is nominated for Actress in a Supporting Role.

Credit: Neon

Kristi York Wooten:  There are some on the list I want to mention, because they were so good. And two of my favorites were Hamnet and Sentimental Value, which are — from a production and writing and aesthetic perspective — totally different than Sinners or One Battle After Another. These are not fast-paced or action. They are really more human stories. And one, Hamnet, of course is supposed to be about the life of William Shakespeare. Sentimental Value is a Norwegian family tale of kind of relationships across two generations in this house. So let's talk about those and kind of what they brought this year. 

Stephen Brown: Kristi, I can imagine you would like those two as well, because they definitely use the notion of literature and the notion of art to bring families together. And in the case of Shakespeare and his partner, played by Best Actress lead Jesse Buckley, are facing a domestic crisis and looking for ways to ease the pain through art. And in Sentimental Value, Stellan Skarsgård's character is trying to reconcile with his two daughters and doing so through a screenplay he's written. They are actresses of either part-time or full-time in real life. And he's hoping that writing a screen play for one of them may be able to bring the family back into a full circle moment. 

Kristi York Wooten: And the role of art is very important in both of these stories. And of course that appealed to me, but also I wanted to mention the music in both of these films. Sentimental Value relies on kind of a sweet spot of 1974-ish, you know, folk songs that would have been popular in Europe at the time, which kind of harkens back to the heyday of the Stellan Skarsgård character and when he would have been becoming a famous actor in that country at the time — the character, anyway. And they used music by Labi Siffre. He's 80 years old, but he was kind of like a James Taylor of his era but in England and had some hits in Europe as well. And Hamnet, of course, has the music of Max Richter, who is an incredible contemporary classical composer who uses interesting methods. And also his music is really well-known because it's used in Instagram reels and TikToks and trending audio. So that gave it kind of like a really modern edge to this story that was set a few hundred years ago. 

So you still think Sinners [will win]? 

Stephen Brown: I do think Sinners will win Best Picture, but I do think Sentimental Value will win Best International Feature. It is neck-and-neck with The Secret Agent from Brazil. And you'd think that because of the over-indexing of actors and actresses that are nominated, it shows that the Academy really loves Sentimental Value. They nominated Renate Reinsve and Inga Isdotter Lilleaas, and so I think there is a great affection for that film. And I definitely think with Hamnet, there's gonna be a very strong Best Actress clincher there for Jessie Buckley. 
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Best Picture 

Will win: 
Sinners (Stephen) 
Sinners (Kristi) 

Personal favorites:
Sinners (Stephen)
Sentimental Value (Kristi)

Also loved:
Sentimental Value (Stephen)
Hamnet (Kristi)
______

Caption

Andrew Scott (left) as Richard Rodgers and Ethan Hawke (right) as Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater's "Blue Moon."

Credit: Sabrina Lantos/Sony Pictures Classics

Kristi York Wooten: So let's jump into the acting categories now. Let's start with Best Actor, and we've got Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B. Jordan and Wagner Moura.

Stephen Brown: That's correct. Some people say that this is one of the most stacked Best Actor lineups in recent years and I have to agree every one of those is a superb performance. Some even say that there could be a splitting the difference and Ethan Hawke emerges as an out-of-nowhere win. Probably unlikely, but he is excellent.  But I do think this is a battle between Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme and Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, who's been kind of a late-breaking emergent candidate. It could be Michael, it could be Tim and it could one of the others.

Kristi York Wooten: That's right. It is a stacked category. And I do think Michael B. Jordan will get it. I mean, going back to Fruitvale Station and even beyond, I've always been a fan of his. I love the Creed movies. 

Stephen Brown:  Absolutely. You know, the funny thing is Ryan Coogler has been there alongside every time he's had an amazing movie — whether it's Creed or the Wakanda movies as well— 

Kristi York Wooten: Right. 

Stephen Brown:  —but Fruitvale Station was definitely a great moment on the scene for him that has continued.

Kristi York Wooten: I think he'll take it. I do want to give a shout out to Ethan Hawke, though. Blue Moon takes place inside of a pretend version of Sardi's, the restaurant in New York. And it's all about the Broadway scene at the time and the tumult of songwriting and having a hit play. And I thought he was so great. He played Lorenz Hart. Is that correct? Right? 

Stephen Brown: That is correct and I know you and I have grown up watching Ethan Hawke and we've been watching [Richard] Linklater movies.
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Actor in a Leading Role

Will win: 
Michael B. Jordan / Sinners (Stephen) 
Michael B. Jordan / Sinners (Kristi) 

Personal favorites:
Ethan Hawke / Blue Moon (Stephen)
Michael B. Jordan / Sinners (Stephen) 

Also loved:
Wagner Moura / The Secret Agent (Stephen)
Ethan Hawke / Blue Moon (Kristi)
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Caption

Kate Hudson (right) and Hugh Jackman star in “Song Sung Blue” (2025).

Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features

Kristi York Wooten: So let's move on to actresses, and I'll let you tell us which actresses are nominated. 

Stephen Brown:  I'll start with just telling you that Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue is wonderful in the role. She is a beloved Hollywood character and she does the political circuit really well. She throws parties and makes a lot of friends and we loved her, of course, years ago in Almost Famous. So there's a full circle moment of being in something else that is music-related where in that movie, it's about a Neil Diamond tribute act ... a really enjoyable classic Oscar-style, feel-good movie, which probably means with the current Academy it doesn't have a shot. But there's that one, and I think for Renate Reinsve of Sentimental Value, you've got some really subtle really Interior acting, she's now in the mix. But I don't think she has really got a shot, either. Emma Stone is sort of "it's another year and another nomination for Emma Stone," who plays the CEO of a health care company in Bugonia. And then Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You, a story about the struggles of motherhood. She's won a lot of critics' awards. She's probably the only thing as a distant second, but Jessie Buckley in Hamnet is almost as sure a bet as something this year. 

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Actress in a Leading Role

Will win: 
Jessie Buckley / Hamnet (Stephen) 
Jessie Buckley / Hamnet (Kristi) 

Personal favorites:
Kate Hudson / Song Sung Blue (Stephen) 
Kate Hudson / Song Sung Blue (Kristi) 

Also loved:
Renate Reinsve / Sentimental Value (Stephen)
Renate Reinsve / Sentimental Value (Kristi)

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Caption

Sean Penn in "One Battle After Another."

Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

Kristi York Wooten: So we'll have to see, it'll be exciting either way. All right, let's talk about Actor in a Supporting Role. 

Stephen Brown: Almost everybody in the field has won a precursor award. So it's one of those where it could be anybody's game that night. I will tell you that if Delroy Lindo of Sinners, who is a big part of that ensemble, wins, you can guarantee it's gonna be a good night for Sinners. But he's up against Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another. Sean Penn seems to be a late-breaking frontrunner who's been winning a lot the precursors. Stellan Skarsgård from Sentimental Value, who plays the father, is in a pretty big role that's being lobbied in "supporting." So some people would say he's maybe the main character, but his runtime says he's supporting. And then the other person is Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. I almost feel like in a certain world, if [Timothée Chalamet's] stock is going down in the lead, Jacob Elordi's might be going up in Supporting. But I think it will be Sean Penn. And the actors just really love a villain and they love it when they've got somebody who's just out there acting. Sean Penn was last seen lighting up a cigarette at the Golden Globes. He hasn't shown up at the other things and he keeps winning. 

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Actor in a Supporting Role

Will win: 
Sean Penn / One Battle After Another (Stephen) 
Sean Penn / One Battle After Another (Kristi) 

Personal favorites:
Delroy Lindo / Sinners (Stephen) 
Stellan Skarsgård / Sentimental Value (Kristi) 

Also loved:
Stellan Skarsgård / Sentimental Value (Stephen)
Delroy Lindo / Sinners (Kristi)

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Caption

Atlanta-based actress Teyana Taylor is nominated for Actress in a Supporting Role for "One Battle After Another."

Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures

Kristi York Wooten:  We're around to Actress in a Supporting Role now. 

Stephen Brown:  This is definitely a fun category. So there's two people from Sentimental Value. So in addition to Inga Isdotter Lilleaas, another person that Americans will know really well is Elle Fanning. And so that was sort of a surprise nomination to have both of them in. And then you've got an actress from each of the leading movies, Sinners and One Battle After Another. You have Wunmi Mosaku from Sinners, who is incredible in that. It's been winning some precursors. And then Teyana Taylor, who is incredible in One Battle, but her character is in the first 20 minutes or so and then doesn't appear again. So you've gotta remember her character from that prologue for her to win. And then there's Amy Madigan, who plays the cult character Aunt Gladys in Weapons, who shows up about halfway or further along in that movie and just steals the show. And then this character comes out of nowhere and Amy Madigan, who was probably nominated for an Oscar before any of her competitors were even born, is just somebody who's old-school Oscars. She's married to Ed Harris, so it's an interesting sort of couple in the acting community, and I do think that despite [the film getting] no other nominations, that could stand out.
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Actress in a Supporting Role

Will win: 
Amy Madigan / Weapons (Stephen)
Teyana Taylor / One Battle After Another (Kristi) 

Personal favorites:
Amy Madigan / Weapons (Stephen)
Inga Isdotter Lilleaas / Sentimental Value (Kristi) 

Also loved:
Inga Isdotter Lilleaas / Sentimental Value (Kristi) 
Elle Fanning / Sentimental Value (Kristi) 

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Caption

Actor Jesse Plemmons appears in a cycling scene in "Bugonia," which filmed in the U.K. and Atlanta.

Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features

Kristi York Wooten: That makes sense. All right, I wanna move on. We mentioned Conyers, Ga., native Elle Fanning and Atlanta resident Teyana Taylor as Actress in a Supporting Role. So definitely a little bit of a Georgia connection there. And there's a couple of other Georgia connections this year. 

Stephen Brown: Yeah, sure. So yes, we love it when we have a part-time resident that is up for the Oscars in Teyana Taylor. We have one of our Best Picture movies is set in our area and actually was filmed here. And that one is Bugonia, which is a very unusual movie, again, about the guys who kidnap the health care executive because they believe she's an alien. I feel like one of the scenes was supposed to be in Fayette County, and it was definitely in the Ansley Midtown area in Midtown Atlanta. So they do that sometimes, where we're hoping that only the Atlantans notice that it's definitely taking place in an odd part of town from what they're saying. But that's been pretty neat. The aforementioned Weapons also did a lot of filming here in town. And then there's a documentary and a documentary short. You'll hear a lot about Come See Me in the Good Light in the documentary feature film. And in documentary short film, The Devil is Busy, also filmed here. 

Kristi York Wooten: And you'll be watching the Oscars telecast from Trilith?

Stephen Brown: That is correct. We'll be watching from a viewing party in the new movie theater in Trilith. We have the new GTC Trilith Cinema, and GTC is a Georgia-based chain. And we're gonna be hosting it in one of the Samsung Onyx auditoriums with a red carpet. We're gonna to be doing fashion awards, prize predictions, and have great food from our partners at Enzo. So, I love of hosting that party each year in Trilith. 

Kristi York Wooten:  And thank you so much for joining us and we'll be ready to watch the Academy Awards on Sunday night. Stephen Brown, thank you again. 

Stephen Brown: Thank you, Kristi.